Lead service
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Monte Carlo that tells the truth.
Schedule and cost risk analysis built to AACE standards, delivered in plain English. We run QSRA, QCRA and integrated QCSRA on live UK programmes — and write the report so the decision-maker can actually act on it.
What good looks like
- A calibrated view of P50, P80 and P95 confidence on schedule and cost.
- Risks identified, quantified and traceable back to workshop input.
- Correlation and merge bias handled properly — not ignored.
- A QRA report that says what it means, with recommendations the programme can own.
What you get
- Risk workshop facilitation and register build
- Three-point estimate calibration
- Monte Carlo model in @Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis, Safran or Acumen
- Correlation and path-convergence analysis
- P50/P80/P95 confidence curves
- QRA report, board-grade
Choosing the right type
Which type of risk analysis do you need? QSRA, QCRA and QCSRA compared.
| QSRA | QCRA | QCSRA (integrated) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What it analyses | Schedule risk only | Cost risk only | Schedule and cost risk together |
| Output | Probability distribution of completion dates (P50/P80/P95) | Probability distribution of outturn cost (P50/P80/P95) | Joint distribution: probability of any (date, cost) pair |
| Captures prolongation cost? | No | No | Yes — schedule slip auto-extends time-related costs |
| Use when | Schedule confidence is the primary governance question; cost already locked | Cost confidence is primary; schedule already locked | Both governance-critical (most major UK infrastructure programmes) |
| Typical UK trigger | NEC4 Clause 31 Accepted Programme; programme gateway | HM Treasury Green Book business case; capital approval | IPA Major Project gate; MoD MPRP; Sizewell-class scrutiny |
| Tools | Safran Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis, @Risk, Acumen Risk | Same — cost-only mode | Same — integrated mode |
| AACE reference | 57R-09, 64R-11 | 40R-08, 57R-09 | 57R-09 (the integrated framework) |
How we start
A 30-minute discovery call. We listen. If the shape of the problem matches the shape of our work, we come back within one working day with a short scoping note — scope, duration, team, indicative cost. Nothing binding, nothing fluffy.
Frequently asked
Quantitative Risk Analysis — questions we get asked
- What does SOMA's Quantitative Risk Analysis service include?
- Our Quantitative Risk Analysis service covers: Risk workshop facilitation and register build, Three-point estimate calibration, Monte Carlo model in @Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis, Safran or Acumen, Correlation and path-convergence analysis, P50/P80/P95 confidence curves, QRA report, board-grade. All work is delivered by chartered practitioners with live-project experience.
- What outcomes can I expect from QRA?
- A calibrated view of P50, P80 and P95 confidence on schedule and cost. Risks identified, quantified and traceable back to workshop input. Correlation and merge bias handled properly — not ignored. A QRA report that says what it means, with recommendations the programme can own.
- How does SOMA start a QRA engagement?
- We begin with a 30-minute discovery call to understand the shape of the problem. Within one working day we provide a short scoping note — scope, duration, team, and indicative cost — with no obligation.
- What sectors does SOMA deliver Quantitative Risk Analysis for?
- SOMA delivers Quantitative Risk Analysis across UK infrastructure sectors including rail, highways, nuclear, water and utilities, defence, and energy. We work across the United Kingdom, on programmes that require chartered, practitioner-led controls.
Got a programme that needs the numbers straight?
Tell us what you are working on. We will come back within one working day with a useful answer — not a sales pitch.